McCain Chipping Away at Obama’s Lead

by Michael Jonas

8/20/08

About a month ago, Democratic nominee Barack Obama had about a 6 point lead in most polls. However, a new poll released by the Wall Street Journal/NBC news polling service shows that there is currently a statistical dead heat between the two candidates. The 6 point lead is down to a 3 point difference with 45% of those polled in favor of Obama and 42% in favor of McCain .

Some believe that Obama’s inability to close the deal may not stem from being compared to McCain but from the reluctance of Hillary supporters to jump on the Obama train. In the poll, only half of the people who voted for Clinton said they support Obama. 1 in 5 of primary Hillary supporters said they would vote for McCain in the general election.

While the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, the numbers point to a noticeable shift. Issue wise, voters feel McCain would do a better job regarding illegal immigration matters, terrorism, the war in Iraq, and in other international issues like Iran and the Russian-Georgian conflict. Obama on the other hand is preferred as the better candidate for economic policy, housing and energy issues, and health care.

The conventions could be crucial for both candidates numbers. Each candidate and party will be on display for the world to see. Bill Burton, Obama spokesman strongly believes that Clinton and Obama supporters will be unified at the rally and come together for Obama. “The Hillary Clinton campaign, may be over, but the Clinton factor remains very much a part of the election.” (Peter Hart, pollster). It should be interesting to see if Obama can once again widen the gap between him and McCain with a possible post-convention bump.